Saturday, May 24, 2014

Correlation Therefore Conclusion

In my wildest dreams, I can not imagine Peri, Shih and Sparber, concluding the mere presence of immigrant workers causes wages to rise –- these are employment based migrants, their gig is to move to the locations where the wages are rising.

The mainstream media is on a mission to extol the virtue of the  In this particular instance, it is impossible to tell if the journalistic pro-immigration slant is coming from the Wall Street Journal authors, Josh Zumbrun and Matt Stiles and if the article’s title, "Skilled Foreign Workers a Boon to Pay, Study Finds” was their idea, was created by their editor, or is actually contained in the “Study” that Zumbrun and Stiles neglected to name.  I guess the WSJ authors thought that nobody would be interested in reading the study, authored by, Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, Chad Sparber,  and entitled, “Foreign STEM Workers and Native Wages and Employment in U.S. Cities”, so why bother to provide the name of the study that they are writing about? 




Instead of reporting, the WSJ's Zumbrun and Stiles open by editorializing the first sentence… 

Want a pay raise? Ask your employer to hire more immigrant scientists.
That's the general conclusion of a study that examined wage data and immigration in 219 metropolitan areas from 1990 to 2010. Researchers found that cities seeing the biggest influx of foreign-born workers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics—the so-called STEM professions—saw wages climb fastest for the native-born, college-educated population.
I tend to find that journalists are often duped into misrepresenting pro-immigration publications, at least in the previous quote, they used the qualifier “general conclusion” rather than a statement of fact, but then they follow later with this…
Mr. Peri, along with co-authors Kevin Shih at UC Davis, and Chad Sparber at Colgate University, studied how wages for college- and noncollege-educated native workers shifted along with immigration. They found that a one-percentage-point increase in the share of workers in STEM fields raised wages for college-educated natives by seven to eight percentage points and wages of the noncollege-educated natives by three to four percentage points.
In my wildest dreams, I can not imagine Peri, Shih and Sparber, concluding the mere presence of immigrant workers causes wages to rise – they are employment based migrants, their gig is to move to locations where the wages are rising. Anyway, I’m not going to spend the five dollars to purchase the study, I found the data in my browser’s cache and that’s what I’m primarily interested in.
But we do have a quote from the article:
"A lot of people have the idea there is a fixed number of jobs," said one of the authors, Giovanni Peri of the University of California, Davis.
"It's completely turned around." Immigrants can boost the productivity of the overall economy, he said, "because then the pie grows and there are more jobs for other people as well and there's not a zero-sum trade-off between natives and immigrants."
I took the data from the 1990 to 2010 study which (from the WSJ article)  infers that H-1B  STEM workers (the sample data) are causational to better employment outcomes across Metropolitan Statistical Areas.  The chart below includes the study data and BLS Unemployment data for 2010.  The red horizontal line is the National Unemployment Rate (9.6%) for the year of 2010

MSA for HTML export_html_mcf755ae

With this chart, I’m not trying to imply that H-1B has any measurable affect on the entire  national unemployment rate, this is clearly displayed on the leftmost eight of the ten groups of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA).  However,  when we look at the MSAs where H-1B participation is declining, static and increasing, we do see a measurable difference in the local unemployment rates.

Where there is less immigrant pressure on the employment market (leftmost 2 MSA groups) the unemployment rates are slightly lower.  For the six MSA group in the middle of the chart, a small increase of 0.1 to 1.0 percent increase in H-1B participation unemployment rates are slightly higher than the 9.6% rate. The two rightmost MSA groups likely displays MSA groups where the business cycle was recovering from the recession with both H-1B migrants and citizen STEM workers moving to those locations.

Judging from leftmost 8 of 10 MSA groups in the chart, the statement  made by Giovanni Peri , “Immigrants can boost the productivity of the overall economy…”, would be an exception rather than the rule and therefore indicating that immigrant participation is not causational.

Again, my thesis does not prove that MSAs with a better business climate attracts higher paid workers and immigrants, but it is just as viable as the thesis that the presence of immigrant workers cause higher wages.
The MSA groups in order of appearance in the chart.
Yellow background indicates wage growth of 15% or above (Avg. 8.69 Unemployment in 2010)
MSA of H-1B Participation Decline
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Flint MI -0.2 -23.1 13.8
Rocky Mount NC -0.2 -13.1 13.8
Kankakee IL -0.3 -7.9 13.3
Kokomo IN -0.4 -5.7 12.1
Sumter SC -0.9 -24.3 12
Fitchburg-Leominster MA -0.7 -8.7 10.7
Albany GA -0.7 -6.4 10.7
Grand Junction CO -0.4 1.5 10.7
Greenville NC -0.4 -6.7 10.4
Jackson TN -0.2 2.1 10.2
Panama City FL -0.9 -16.6 10.1
Flagstaff AZ-UT -0.1 -15.3 9.7
Columbus GA-AL -0.4 8.8 9.4
Goldsboro NC -0.1 -7.2 9.3
Biloxi-Gulfport MS -0.1 21.8 9.3
Gadsden AL -0.4 -15.2 9.2
Wausau WI -0.1 6.9 9
Laredo TX -0.7 -7 8.9
Barnstable-Yarmouth MA -1.4 -8 8.7
Dothan AL -1.3 -16.2 8.3
Glens Falls NY -1.1 -21.4 8.2
Newburgh-Middletown NY -1.9 -18.5 8.1
Fort Smith AR-OK -0.2 -11.5 8.1
Lynchburg VA -0.1 2.9 8
Auburn-Opelika AL -0.5 -27 7.8
Topeka KS -0.1 -7.5 7.1
Lake Charles LA -1 11.1 7
Alexandria LA -0.1 3.7 7
Portland ME -0.6 -1.5 6.8
Sioux City IA-NE -0.1 -12.7 6.8
Charlottesville VA -0.8 -8.1 6
Iowa City IA -0.6 -19.5 4.5





Metro Statistical Area Count = 32.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = -0.53


STEM Wages % (Avg) = -7.82


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.22








Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation = NONE
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Elkhart-Goshen IN 0 -1.8 13.4
Benton Harbor MI 0 12.3 12.3
Myrtle Beach SC 0 19.1 12.1
Danville VA 0 -6.2 11.8
Mansfield OH 0 6 11.7
Toledo OH-MI 0 1.4 11.1
Pueblo CO 0 21.4 10.5
Yakima WA 0 5.4 10.1
Johnson City-Kingsport--Bristol TN-VA 0 15 9.1
Hattiesburg MS 0 -14.5 9
Florence AL 0 -7.7 8.8
Tuscaloosa AL 0 -0.4 8.7
Evansville IN-KY 0 15.5 8.5
Tallahassee FL 0 -15.9 8.3
St. Joseph MO 0 1.5 8.2
Corpus Christi TX 0 -5 8.1
Duluth-Superior MN-WI 0 18.3 8.1
Monroe LA 0 5.5 7.8
Wichita Falls TX 0 4.2 7.7
St. Cloud MN 0 -13.6 7.5
Longview-Marshall TX 0 23.9 7.5
New Orleans LA 0 7 7.2
Shreveport LA 0 14.8 6.9
Abilene TX 0 -5.4 6.5
Houma-Thibodoux LA 0 13.4 5.4
Billings MT 0 12.3 5.2





Metro Statistical Area Count = 26.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.00


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 4.87


2010 Unemployment Avg = 8.90



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation = 0.1%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Yuma AZ 0.1 11.2 26.1
Yuba City CA 0.1 18.4 19.3
Rockford IL 0.1 7.5 15.4
Medford OR 0.1 -3 12.6
Youngstown-Warren OH-PA 0.1 -4.5 11.3
Canton OH 0.1 2.2 11.3
South Bend-Mishawaka IN 0.1 5.6 11.3
Janesville-Beloit WI 0.1 2 11.2
Terre Haute IN 0.1 -17.3 11.1
Eugene-Springfield OR 0.1 3.9 11.1
Lima OH 0.1 1.6 10.8
Dayton-Springfield OH 0.1 2.8 10.7
Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange TX 0.1 5.7 10.7
Racine WI 0.1 -9.4 10.1
Clarksville- Hopkinsville TN-KY 0.1 1.3 10.1
Pensacola FL 0.1 1.7 10
Mobile AL 0.1 7 9.9
Scranton-Wilkes-Barre PA 0.1 7.2 9.5
Anniston AL 0.1 7 9.4
Johnstown PA 0.1 -4.3 9.2
Reading PA 0.1 6.5 8.9
Williamsport PA 0.1 -2.3 8.8
York PA 0.1 19.5 8.6
Knoxville TN 0.1 0.9 8
Fort Walton Beach FL 0.1 3.2 7.9
Tyler TX 0.1 21.7 7.9
Athens GA 0.1 -1 7.5
Lancaster PA 0.1 12.2 7.4
Sioux Falls SD 0.1 5.1 5.1





Metro Statistical Area Count = 29.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.10


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 1.99


2010 Unemployment Avg = 10.73



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 0.1% and < 0.3%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Redding CA 0.2 -3 15.8
Hickory-Morgantown NC 0.2 -3.1 13.8
Vineland-Milville-Bridgetown NJ 0.2 5.8 13.6
Salinas-Sea Side-Monterey CA 0.2 14.1 12.7
Saginaw-Bay City-Midland MI 0.2 6.1 12.1
Muncie IN 0.2 -4.8 11.2
Melbourne-Titusville-Cocoa-Palm Bay FL 0.2 7.7 11.2
Kalamazoo-Portage MI 0.2 2.1 10.8
Fort Wayne IN 0.2 -7.9 10.3
Spokane WA 0.2 18.2 9.9
Decatur AL 0.2 -1.7 9.6
Charleston-N.Charleston SC 0.2 10.4 9.2
Bellingham WA 0.2 -2.1 9
Sheboygan WI 0.2 -7.8 8.9
Asheville NC 0.2 5.7 8.9
Binghamton NY 0.2 4.6 8.8
Chattanooga TN-GA 0.2 6.2 8.8
Springfield MO 0.2 -1.6 8.5
Rochester NY 0.2 0.8 8.2
Dover DE 0.2 -4.7 8.1
Springfield IL 0.2 8.3 8.1
Las Cruces NM 0.2 -1.3 7.8
Altoona PA 0.2 15.7 7.6
Anchorage AK 0.2 2.7 7.3
Eau Claire WI 0.2 4.5 7.3
Fargo-Morehead ND-MN 0.2 -10 4.1





Metro Statistical Area Count = 26.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.20


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 2.50


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.68



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 0.2% and < 0.3%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Modesto CA 0.3 0.6 17.2
Visalia-Tulare-Porterville CA 0.3 2.3 17
Chico CA 0.3 3.5 13.8
Ocala FL 0.3 9.3 13.5
Jackson MI 0.3 -5.4 12.7
Daytona Beach FL 0.3 3.5 11.6
Brownsville-Harlingen-San Benito TX 0.3 6.2 11.3
Salem OR 0.3 10.8 10.7
Greeley CO 0.3 18.1 10.2
Tacoma WA 0.3 12.8 9.6
Fayetteville NC 0.3 -3.2 9.5
Erie PA 0.3 5.5 9.1
Augusta-Aiken GA-SC 0.3 6.2 9.1
Savannah GA 0.3 -5.3 9
Birmingham AL 0.3 8.9 8.6
Buffalo-Niagara Falls NY 0.3 5.8 8.5
Jacksonville NC 0.3 13.3 8.5
Joplin MO 0.3 10.2 8.3
Bremerton WA 0.3 15.6 8.2
Utica-Rome NY 0.3 1.3 8.1
Lafayette-W.Appleton, WI IN 0.3 4.5 7.8
Kileen-Temple TX 0.3 6.7 7.7
Tulsa OK 0.3 7.9 7.7
Appleton-Oshkosh-Neenah WI 0.3 4 7.4
Lubbock TX 0.3 13.2 6.3
Cedar Rapids IA 0.3 12 6.2
Lincoln NE 0.3 17.2 4.2





Metro Statistical Area Count = 27.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.30


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 6.87


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.70



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 0.3% and < 0.6%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Merced CA 0.5 4.4 18.7
Fresno CA 0.4 5.7 16.7
Bakersfield CA 0.4 3.3 15.9
Fort Myers-Cape Coral FL 0.4 10.4 12.7
Waterbury CT 0.5 9 12.4
Lakeland-Winterhaven FL 0.5 -9 12.2
Punta Gorda FL 0.5 1 12
Decatur IL 0.4 19.4 11.9
Naples FL 0.5 29.7 11.6
Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point NC 0.5 4.9 11.4
Grand Rapids MI 0.5 0.8 10.8
Wilmington NC 0.4 14.6 10.5
Santa Rosa-Petaluma CA 0.5 15.5 10.5
Peoria IL 0.5 11.9 10.4
Hagerstown MD 0.5 7.9 10.1
Lansing-E. Lansing MI 0.5 2.8 10
Akron OH 0.5 5.5 9.9
St. Louis MO-IL 0.5 2 9.8
Colorado Springs CO 0.5 16.6 9.8
Cincinnati-Hamilton OH-KY-IN 0.5 10.5 9.7
Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson SC 0.5 9.2 9.6
Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc CA 0.5 9.1 9.5
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ 0.4 8.8 9.2
Cleveland OH 0.5 2.7 8.9
Milwaukee WI 0.5 13 8.9
Montgomery AL 0.5 -3.7 8.8
Wichita KS 0.5 8.8 8.7
Syracuse NY 0.4 8.2 8.6
Davenport IA-Rock Island -Moline IL 0.4 1.4 8.5
Jackson MS 0.5 10.6 8.5
Albuquerque NM 0.5 9.8 8.3
Pittsburgh PA 0.5 2.1 7.8
Norfolk-VA Beach--Newport News VA 0.5 11 7.5
Baton Rouge LA 0.4 10.1 7.4
Waco TX 0.5 13.4 7.2
Little Rock--North Little Rock AR 0.4 5.8 7
Oklahoma City OK 0.4 5.9 6.5
Manchester NH 0.4 -6.2 6.3
Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA 0.5 4.2 6
Lafayette LA 0.5 5.2 6
Honolulu HI 0.4 6.4 5.7
Amarillo TX 0.4 15.2 5.6
Omaha NE-IA 0.5 13 5.2





Metro Statistical Area Count = 43.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.47


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 7.70


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.60



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 0.5% and < 0.8%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Riverside-San Bernardino CA 0.6 -0.6 14.3
Santa Cruz CA 0.7 14.1 12.7
McAllen-Edinburg-Pharr-Mission TX 0.7 -6.7 12.1
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL 0.7 6.9 11.9
Los Angeles-Long Beach CA 0.7 7.3 11.8
Miami-Hialeah FL 0.7 -0.7 11.3
Macon-Warner Robins GA 0.6 0.2 10.4
Louisville KY-IN 0.6 3.7 10.1
Memphis TN-AR-MS 0.6 14.1 10.1
El Paso TX 0.7 -2.1 9.8
Tucson AZ 0.6 10.2 9.4
Columbia SC 0.6 4.1 9.3
Springfield-Holyoke-Chicopee MA 0.7 18.8 9.2
Nashville TN 0.6 12.3 8.8
Bridgeport CT 0.6 43.4 8.6
Lexington-Fayette KY 0.7 16.8 8.4
Bloomington IN 0.6 4.7 7.9
Green Bay WI 0.6 20.5 7.8
Odessa TX 0.7 35 7.8
Harrisburg-Lebanon--Carlisle PA 0.6 13.8 7.7
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY 0.7 8 7.4
San Antonio TX 0.7 10 7.4
Bryan-College Station TX 0.7 20 6.6





Metro Statistical Area Count = 23.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.65


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 11.03


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.60



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 0.7% and < 1.1%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Stockton CA 1 8 17.3
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach FL 1 10.9 15.1
Las Vegas NV 1 0.4 14.1
Detroit MI 0.8 -0.2 13.9
Atlantic City NJ 0.8 18.4 12.7
Sacramento CA 1 17.8 12.5
Sarasota FL 0.8 6.2 12
New Bedford MA 0.8 27.6 11.8
Ventura-Oxnard-Simi Valley CA 1 10.5 10.9
Chicago IL 1 13.5 10.4
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul IL 1 16.1 9.1
Denver-Boulder CO 1 16.9 9.1
Indianapolis IN 0.8 5.5 9
Kansas City MO-KS 0.8 12.3 8.9
Philadelphia PA-NJ 0.8 16.2 8.9
Wilmington DE-NJ-MD 1 10 8.9
Columbus OH 1 12.8 8.7
Olympia WA 0.8 13.6 8.4
Provo-Orem UT 0.8 26.3 8
Salt Lake City-Ogden UT 0.9 4.9 7.9
Richland-Kennewick-Pasco WA 0.9 15 7.8
Fort Collins-Loveland CO 0.9 1.9 7.5
Santa Fe NM 1 21.6 6.5
Columbia MO 0.9 3.4 6.4
Des Moines IA 0.9 13.6 6.2





Metro Statistical Area Count = 25.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.91


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 12.13


2010 Unemployment Avg = 10.08








Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation > 1.0% and < 2.0%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Reno NV 1.5 10.7 13.1
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill NC-SC 1.2 20 11.8
Providence-Fall River-Pawtucket MA-RI 1.4 11.7 11.7
Orlando FL 1.3 2 11.3
Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood-Pompano Beach FL 1.4 3.5 11.3
Jacksonville FL 1.3 13.1 10.9
Portland OR-WA 1.4 11.5 10.6
San Diego CA 1.9 15.4 10.6
Phoenix AZ 1.4 11.8 9.7
New Haven-Meriden CT 1.5 24.9 9.6
Hartford-Bristol-Middleton- New Britain CT 1.1 13.9 9.4
New York-Northeastern NJ 1.2 19.6 9
Boise City ID 1.8 5.1 9
Baltimore MD 1.2 16.7 8.3
Dallas-Fort Worth TX 1.8 17.2 8.2
Ann Arbor MI 1.8 16.9 8.1
Gainesville FL 1.1 17.1 8
Richmond-Petersburg VA 1.1 16.6 7.9
Danbury CT 1.2 26.1 7.8
Roanoke VA 1.3 5.3 7.6
Minneapolis-St. Paul MN 1.3 19.5 7.3
State College PA 1.1 13.3 6.2
Madison WI 1.7 20 6





Metro Statistical Area Count = 23.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 1.39


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 14.43


2010 Unemployment Avg = 9.28



Increase/Decline: H-1B Participation >= 2%
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
San Francisco-Oakland-Vallejo CA 2.7 25.5 10.3
Atlanta GA 2 9.1 10.1
Seattle-Everett WA 3.1 24.1 9.6
Worcester MA 2.9 6.6 8.9
Raleigh-Durham NC 3.4 17.3 8.8
Houston-Brazoria TX 2.1 19.2 8.5
Trenton NJ 2 17.7 7.9
Bloomington-Normal IL 2.6 13 7.8
Boston MA-NH 2 23.9 7.5
Huntsville AL 3.2 28.1 7.3
Austin TX 3.5 25.3 7.1
Fayetteville-Springdale AR 2.7 36.8 6.5
Washington DC-MD-VA 2.8 28.6 6.5
Rochester MN 2.9 8.4 6.2










Metro Statistical Area Count = 14.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 2.71


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 20.26


2010 Unemployment Avg = 8.07



The following list could  not be mapped to the 372 MSAs listed at http://www.bls.gov/lau/lamtrk10.htm, or were otherwise duplicative of other MSAs, the count of MSAs used  in the WSJ article is 280.
Unused Non Standard or Duplicate MSAs
Metro Statistical Area State H-1B Participation % STEM Wages % 2010 Unemployment
Jamestown-Dunkirk NY -0.1 -9.2 N/A
Sharon PA 0 -7.8 N/A
Fort Pierce FL 0.1 -2.8 N/A
LaCrosse WI 0.3 -7.6 N/A
Kenosha WI 0.3 14.4 N/A
Monmouth-Ocean NJ 0.5 12.2 N/A
Hamilton-Middleton OH 0.7 5.8 N/A
Galveston-Texas City TX 1 12.8 N/A
Brockton MA 1.3 6.7 N/A
Nashua NH 1.5 12.2 N/A
Yolo CA 1.8 10.5 N/A
Dutchess Co. NY 2.2 30.3 N/A





Metro Statistical Area Count = 12.00


H-1B Participation % (Avg) = 0.80


STEM Wages % (Avg) = 6.46


2010 Unemployment Avg = N/A


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